As the summer of 2025 draws to a close, many retirees and Social Security beneficiaries are already turning their attention to 2026’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA).
Although the Social Security Administration (SSA) won’t confirm the official adjustment until October 2025, early predictions based on inflation trends and economic conditions are already surfacing.
Understanding How the COLA Is Calculated
The COLA is determined by the SSA using data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a monthly report provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The agency compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year with the same three-month span from the previous year.
Here’s how the calculation affects the COLA:
- If inflation rises, the COLA increases accordingly to offset the cost of living.
- If inflation remains stable or decreases, the COLA may be minimal or even zero.
Current Predictions for the 2026 COLA
Economic experts have already begun analyzing current data and offering forecasts:
- The Senior Citizens League estimates a 2.4% COLA for 2026.
- This is lower than the 3.2% adjustment beneficiaries received in 2025 and significantly below the historic 8.7% increase in 2023.
According to Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the League, “The trend of falling inflation indicates that the upcoming COLA will likely align more closely with historical averages.”
What a Lower COLA Means for Retirees
A smaller COLA increase can pose financial difficulties for those on fixed incomes. While inflation may cool, many everyday expenses continue to rise, including:
- Housing and rent
- Grocery bills
- Healthcare and prescription drugs
Even with a COLA adjustment, some seniors may find that the extra income doesn’t fully offset their rising costs, especially if Medicare premiums increase in tandem.
When Will the 2026 COLA Be Officially Announced?
The SSA is expected to announce the official 2026 COLA figure in mid-October 2025. This announcement will rely heavily on the CPI-W data from September.
Once the figure is released, updated benefit amounts will begin appearing in January 2026 checks for all eligible Social Security recipients.
Summary Table – 2026 COLA Forecast
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Forecasted COLA | 2.4% (Predicted by Senior Citizens League) |
| Official Announcement Date | Mid-October 2025 |
| Data Basis | CPI-W average (July–September 2025 vs. 2024) |
| Previous COLAs | 3.2% (2025), 8.7% (2023) |
| First Updated Payment | January 2026 |
Although the predicted 2.4% COLA for 2026 marks a return to more typical levels after the historically high increase in 2023, it may not be enough to cover the rising cost of essentials.
For many seniors, even small fluctuations in benefit increases can have a significant impact. Staying informed about the upcoming changes can help retirees plan and budget effectively for the year ahead.
FAQs
Why is the projected COLA for 2026 lower than previous years?
The projected 2.4% increase reflects slowing inflation and more stable consumer prices compared to recent years.
Will the 2026 COLA keep up with rising healthcare costs?
Likely not. Modest COLA increases often fall short of covering rising Medicare premiums and prescription drug prices.
How can I find out my updated benefit amount for 2026?
Once the SSA releases the official COLA in October 2025, your updated amount will be reflected in your January 2026 payment notice and your My Social Security account.
